Rule 1
The reserve rule
The University holds a reserve equal to six months of operating cost before any discretionary spending; surpluses build it first.
Pricing Model 5.1
Low fees must be permanent, not promotional.
Seven published financial rules protect access, practical learning and the University's ability to keep its promises for decades.
Sustainability
The rules that protect the Forward Standard
These rules are reproduced from Pricing Model 5.1 and apply together.
Rule 2
The surplus target
A surplus of 15 to 25 per cent of net revenue is planned every year after year one, split between the reserve, reinvestment in laboratories and platform, and the Access Fund.
Rule 3
Cost-based fees
Every fee and premium is reviewed annually against audited cost and published benchmarks; increases for continuing students are capped at inflation.
Rule 4
Ring-fenced funds
The Laboratory Fund and the Access Fund are separate accounts, published annually, and cannot be raided for operations.
Rule 5
Growth matched to capacity
Campus intake is capped to laboratory and clinical capacity; growth beyond the campus is online by design, at lower unit cost.
Rule 6
Rent managed as a strategic risk
Rent beginning in year three is negotiated to USD 4 per square metre or converted to the Option C purchase; the model remains positive at USD 6 from 10,000 students.
Rule 7
Diversified income
The Forward Hotel, Teaching Restaurant, bakery, events hall, executive education and research grants add income that does not depend on tuition.
The model, computed
Four-year sustainability model
Financial figures are UGX billions. Every figure is computed from the assumptions in Pricing Model 5.1.
| Line | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total enrolment | 4,000 | 8,000 | 14,000 | 20,000 |
| Gross tuition including premiums | 10.8 | 21.5 | 37.7 | 53.9 |
| Total net revenue | 10.2 | 20.4 | 35.8 | 51.0 |
| Total cost | 9.4 | 14.8 | 29.1 | 34.2 |
| Surplus | 0.8 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 16.9 |
| Margin on net revenue | 8% | 27% | 19% | 33% |
Break-even is about 2,600 students without rent and about 8,600 students with rent at USD 6 per square metre.
Year 3 surplus sensitivity
UGX billions, by enrolment and monthly rent per square metre.
| Enrolment | No rent | USD 4 | USD 6 | USD 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8,000 | 7.4 | 2.0 | -0.8 | -3.5 |
| 10,000 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | -1.0 |
| 14,000 | 14.9 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 4.0 |
| 20,000 | 22.4 | 16.9 | 14.2 | 11.4 |
The road to millions
Each stage funds the next
Years one and two establish the campus and the first 8,000 students. Years three and four scale online delivery across East Africa and the continent to 20,000. Years five to eight add regional learning hubs in three East African cities and the diaspora, a second campus if enrolment justifies it, and executive and professional education at scale, toward 100,000 learners.